Fertiliser prices are projected to end 2025 up 21% from last year, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report. The institution noted that fertiliser prices have risen almost every month this year, averaging 30% higher in the third quarter than during the same period in 2024.
In September, urea prices climbed 36.6% year-on-year to US$461 per ton, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) rose 41% to US$554.8 per ton. Potassium chloride (MOP) also increased 23% to US$286.9 per ton.
The surge stems from strong global demand and tight supply. China has maintained export restrictions on nitrogen fertilisers and limited phosphate exports to support domestic battery production for electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Belarus remains under European Union sanctions, and Russia faces new EU tariffs on fertiliser exports.
The World Bank expects DAP prices to rise 26% in 2025 before easing 8% in 2026. MOP prices are projected to increase 19%, while urea could jump 30% this year before declining 7% in 2026 and 9% in 2027. The report warned that higher fertiliser costs are likely to further squeeze farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future crop yields.
