The global avocado market has expanded significantly over the past decade and could accelerate further by 2030. Consumption is now well established in high-income markets such as the European Union (EU), supported by its nutritional benefits and culinary versatility.
Ten years ago, avocados were seen as a niche or trendy product, Bard said. Today, they are widely consumed as an everyday fruit and a staple of healthy diets.
The increase in global consumption has been particularly strong in Europe. In 2025, average annual per-capita consumption in the 27 EU countries reached 1.8 kg, double the 0.9 kg recorded in 2016, according to Bard.
Growing demand has also expanded distribution channels. Improvements in transport and supply-chain management have ensured better year-round availability. Bard said the consumption trend is unlikely to slow over the next four years. The European market could exceed 1.5 million tonnes as it gradually approaches U.S. consumption levels.
New producing countries including Guatemala, Ecuador, Tanzania, Rwanda, Portugal and Angola are also expected to enter the market, he added.
Asia: the next take-off?
Asia could also emerge as a major consumption hub, with India, South Korea and potentially China and Japan expected to drive growth, Bard said. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are also likely to record sustained increases in demand.
However, Bard’s optimism about Asia’s growth potential has left some observers skeptical. This is not the first time the region, which is home to about 60% of the world’s population, has been presented as the next major consumption centre.
Several forecasts in recent years have pointed to strong market expansion in the region. Yet progress has remained modest. While regional imports increased by about 70% between 2015 and 2024, rising from 126,675 tonnes to nearly 216,000 tonnes according to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, the region still accounts for only 6% of international trade. Europe represents 48% and the United States 34%.
In 2022, per-capita consumption in South Korea, Japan and China ranged between 300 and 600 grams, according to the 2023 Fruitrop review from the French agricultural research center CIRAD. The estimate is based on the wealthiest 100 million inhabitants. By comparison, consumption reached 1.6 kg in the EU27 and the United Kingdom and 3.7 kg in the United States.
Several market experts nonetheless believe Asia will remain central to industry strategy in the coming years. More than already mature markets, the region is expected to remain a key target for marketing efforts because of its potential to absorb rising supply. According to projections from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the FAO, global avocado production is expected to grow by about 2.1% per year through 2034, almost three times faster than in 2015.
