The global cocoa surplus for the 2024/2025 season is now expected to reach 49 000 tons, according to estimates from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). The projected stock is almost three times lower than the organisation’s initial February forecast of 142 000 tons.
The revision reflects a weaker-than-expected rebound in production. The ICCO now estimates global output at 4.69 million tons in 2024/2025, an increase of 7.6 % from the previous season’s 4.36 million tons, but slightly below the organisation’s earlier projection of 4.84 million tons.
The surplus remains in place mainly because slower grinding activity has reduced bean consumption by processors. According to the ICCO, global bean grindings fell by 4.3 % year on year to 4.6 million tons, as high input costs squeezed processing margins.
Data compiled on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that cocoa prices rose 68.23 %, closing at US$7 924 per ton on April 2, 2025, compared with US$4 710 per ton in October 2024 in New York, with peaks near US$9 000 recorded in December and January of the period under review.
Cocoa prices then dropped 14.23 %, closing at US$6 796 per ton on 30th September 2025.
Overall, the market appears less tight than in 2023/2024, a season marked by a record deficit of 489 000 tons. The ICCO notes that its figures may be revised depending on data updates from producing countries.
