Today, Wednesday 24 August 2022, marks six months since Russia’s unprovoked war on the free and democratic Ukraine. It is also the country’s day of independence – 31 years since Ukraine re-established its independence. It’s a day that deserves reflection – and a moment to take stock of what the threat to independence means for the world – and Africa.
“Europe and the US have been hard-hit,” says Liubov Abravitova, ambassador of Ukraine in South Africa, Botswana and Mozambique. “And, the pain being suffered from the energy crisis is a strategic one. Dubbed as ‘energy blackmailing’, the Kremlin expects economic pressures brought about by significant reductions in energy resources as the heating season in the northern hemisphere kicks in will lead to war fatigue – and weaken the support provided to Ukraine.”
And, after just six months, South Africa and the continent have powerfully felt the impact of this war. Immediately, the most pressing and visible consequences have been rising food and fuel prices – compounded by financial instability and inflation on a continent far from economically recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Economically speaking
“Longer term,” says Abravitova, “we can expect this pain to be compounded. Ukraine’s trade turnover in the first half of 2022 is 21.3% less than in 2021. Approximately 12% of the continent’s wheat imports came directly from Ukraine between 2018 -2020, so the mid to long term consequences are cause for concern, as ongoing food shortages will translate into elevated food costs and shortages.”
The hardest hit globally are societies in the lower income brackets – for whom the majority of their income is dedicated to transportation and food. Already, the UN’s Global Crisis Response Group has predicted a “cost of living crisis” – and it is Africa, with the intensified impact of its poor infrastructure (impacting logistics and food distribution), and fluctuating weather patterns which are reducing local crop yield, and the outlook for a mid- to long-term reprieve seems scant.
“Unless the world stands in unison to uphold the sanctions against Russia and bring a swift end to the war, Africa’s food insecurity is likely to last, and the effects will touch human development from health to education and income,” says the ambassador.
Solidarity is the only solution
As the food crisis deepens, the temptation to buy food from Russia, stolen from temporarily occupied Ukraine will grow. Footage of the Russian military seizing and transporting an estimated 650 000 tons of grain crops from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and being transported for sale under Russian and Syrian flags is a growing concern – and could undermine solidarity with Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has stressed the importance of identifying vessels transporting stolen food, banning them from entering seaports or detaining and arresting complicit parties by the respective national governments.
“Trade ties with Russia should be severed as much as possible, as they are actively used by the Kremlin as a tool of pressure,” says Abravitova. “Restricting Russia’s access to maritime transportation would further undermine its export-oriented economy.”
At last – good news
Ukrainian food export is gradually easing, following months of the Russian blockade of Ukrainian seaports since 24 February 2022. Since 12 August 2022, five convoys of vessels have been left with food. Under the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports, signed on 22 July, the world is watching to ensure Russia honours the agreement. “We are grateful to the UN and Turkey for mediating this arrangement,” says Abravitova.
“What this means for the world is the stabilisation of the global market, decreasing food prices and a reduction in the chaos caused by lack of food around the world.”
The independence of Ukraine
According to Abravitova, Russia’s offensive in Ukraine has stalled. Russia is increasingly forced to respond to Ukraine’s actions. The aggressor’s significant numerical superiority was counterbalanced by the bravery of Ukrainian defenders and efficient high-precision weapons provided by Western partners. And, the will of Ukraine’s people is strong, with 98% convinced that Ukraine will win the war.
“Russia’s war against Ukraine is a threat to all democratic nations of the world. The Ukrainian government’s stance on the so-called ‘neutral position’ taken by some states is only provoking the aggressor to continue its attacks. Russia’s actions must be clearly condemned. From the government’s perspective, NATO membership would be the best security guarantee for Ukraine.
“We will not deviate from this path, as 72% of Ukrainians support joining NATO. Until that happens, Ukraine needs effective and legally binding security guarantees, which would prevent Russia’s aggression and allow Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery,” concludes Abravitova.
